Population Dynamics and Globalization: the Unresolved Dilemma of Population Momentum

In spite of the level of economic development, governments of the region are increasingly challenged to provide the basic needs for a growing population - adequate housing, sanitation, health care, education, and job opportunities - and to combat poverty, narrow the gap between rich and poor, and to generally improve the standard of living. In addition, the region''s scarce water resources need to be managed in the face of growing demand. Unemployment is highest among young people and women. Women face the highest rate of unemployment in the world. According to the ILO, the largest gender gaps in unemployment are found in the region. Furthermore, despite government''s efforts in the area of education, the number of illiterate adults continues to increase in some countries. Additionally, due to high population momentum, savings and investment are low and in some countries 85% of the national income was spent on consumptions during the 1990''s.

The vital question is how would these countries be able to apply an export led growth strategy, stimulated by technical progress, while its young population constitutes unparalleled momentum to population growth. One-third of the region ‘s population is under age 15. Over the next 15 years, these children will enter the labour force. Furthermore, to prepare its growing working-age population for the labour market, these countries require a much greater investment in human resources, including greater support for skills training for young people, increasing female literacy, and increasing the economic options for women. In addition to higher investment in human resources, further savings and investments are needed to meet the requirements of integration into the world economy. These countries should increase their economic growth rate while maximizing productivity level through technical progress .To be incorporated in the world economy and to be a globalizer, the formula is to overcome the trade-off problem between productivity levels and the number of workers i.e. achieving sustained economic growth through technical progress. This involves a sharp increase in savings and investment rates, together with reductions in the workforce growth rates.

Given such unfavourable and demanding situation, it is not surprising that some 300 million people in the Middle East - are being left behind. As the World Bank put it "These economies have contracted, poverty has risen, and education levels have risen less rapidly than in the more globalizes countries". Due to high population momentum and low rate of technical progress, these countries have been unable to increase their integration in the world economy; their ratio of trade to GDP either remained flat or declined.

Source: http://www.escwa.un.org/popin/index.asp